Chicago Bulls 2019/20 Report

INTRODUCTION

The Chicago Bulls finished the COVID-19 interrupted season, eleventh in the Eastern Conference, with a 22-43 record (.338). It’s their best finish since 2016/17. The memories of the unstoppable 90s Bulls have been rekindled with the documentary, The Last Dance. Chicago is still a storied franchise and with the right plan could have the pulling-power to assemble a squad to bring back the good times at The United Center.

THE SQUAD

Below, we can see the main squad for the 2019/20 season. We have a breakdown of how many minutes they played, their Value Per Minute (offensive, defensive, and overall), as well as, their WR (work rate) or actions per minute.

It is important to understand that the measuring is based on the statistical value per minute a player brings while they’re on the court, both offensively and defensively. This isn’t to say the highest value is automatically the best player, just that for the time that player is on the court, this is how much value they give.

The key for any team is to have a good balance positionally and on both ends of the court. As we can see from the table, the centers and shooting guards give the most overall value. There are some players that give far more on one side than the other, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing as long as the team as a whole has a good balance. The higher the numbers are in that balance, obviously the better.

The values below are individual figures, while the team as a whole score 346.6 ATT, -29.1 DEF, and 318 Overall, with a WR of 5.2. Eastern rivals, Milwaukee Bucks, were the benchmark team in the regular season, finishing as the league’s number one seed. They scored 355.3 ATT, 16.1 DEF, and 371 Overall, with a WR of 5.4. This gap is what Chicago must close and to do so will take roster management.

THE BREAKDOWN

The most common starting lineup for Chicago in the 2019/20 season was:

C: Wendell Carter Jr. (77.7, 44.4, 122)

PF: Lauri Markkanen (65.3, 41.5, 107)

SF: Zach LaVine (81.2, 41.5, 123)

SG: Tomáš Satoransky (72.3, 26.8, 99)

PG: Kris Dunn (41.7, 51.8, 94)

Total VPM: 338.2 ATT, 206 DEF, Overall 545

This starting lineup appeared eighteen times for a record of seven wins and eleven losses.

The Milwaukee Bucks most common starting lineup was:

C: Brook Lopez (62, 102.5, 165)

PF: Giannis Antetokounmpo (89.2, 82.4, 172)

SF: Khris Middleton (116.7, 29.3, 146)

SG: Wesley Matthews (38.4, 17.6, 56)

PG: Eric Bledsoe (81.2, 39.4, 121)

Total VPM: 387.5 ATT, 271.2 DEF, Overall 660

As we can see, there is a big difference between the two starting lineups, on both offense and defense. Of course, the members of the starting lineup don’t play every minute of every match so it is also important to have squad depth.

Whether you need a boost on offense or to put the clamps on on defense, it’s important that you lose as little value as possible with every substitution. The Bulls have some useful help off the bench, who in their limited opportunities have provided much needed value.

It’s also important for player and squad management that individuals aren’t overly relied on for minutes. League MVP, Giannis Antetokounmpo only plays thirty minutes per game for Milwaukee which is the most in the squad. Chicago’s LaVine plays closer to thirty five minutes while Markkanen and Carter Jr are both over twenty nine minutes, and Satoransky is roughly twenty nine minutes.

The fewer minutes played and better rested a player is, the more they are likely to have in the tank while they’re on the court. This is only possible with depth and if the squad stay healthy.

So let’s look at some different combinations the Bulls can run depending on the situation.

Best Overall V

C: Daniel Gafford (54.5, 78.8, 133)

PF: Wendell Carter Jr (77.7, 44,4, 122)

SF: Lauri Markkanen (65.3, 41.5, 107)

SG: Zach LaVine (81.2, 41.5, 123)

PG: Shaquille Harrison (72.6, 74.4, 147)

Total VPM: 351.3 ATT, 280.6 DEF, Overall 632

This lineup is an improvement in all three VPM categories to the most commonly used starting lineup from 2019/20. It still falls short of the Bucks despite having more defensive value.

It’s a big lineup but still has shooting range in LaVine, Harrison and Markkanen. Gafford, Carter Jr can offer inside scoring, rim protection and boards.

Best Defensive V

C: Daniel Gafford (54.5, 78.8, 133)

PF: Thaddeus Young (51.8, 50.1, 102)

SF: Chandler Hutchison (14.9, 48.2, 63)

SG: Shaquille Harrison (72.6, 74.4, 147)

PG: Kris Dunn (41.7, 51.8, 94)

Total VPM: 235.5 ATT, 303.3 DEF, Overall 539

This lineup is the strongest defensive lineup but it does drop off considerably on offense. It’s a lineup to get a stop or halt a run by the opposition. Young and Harrison offer some shooting range while Dunn and Gafford can convert at a good rate from closer in.

This is not combination you’d run for an extended period but could be valuable in the right circumstance.

Best Offensive V

C: Cristiano Felício (89.6, 17.9, 108)

PF: Wendell Carter Jr (77.7, 44.4, 122)

SF: Zach LaVine (81.2, 41.5, 123)

SG: Shaquille Harrison (72.6, 74.4, 147)

PG: Tomáš Satoransky (72.3, 26.8, 99)

Total VPM: 393.4 ATT, 205 DEF, Overall 599

Like the defensive team, there’s a huge drop off between defense and offense. It’s important to remember that offensive value is not just points scored but also things like shooting percentage, offensive rebounds, assist and protecting possession.

The big guys can convert inside while LaVine, Harrison and Satoransky offer a deeper threat. An often overlooked aspect is free throw shooting. This lineup can hit their free throws which means they can attack the defense aggressively to draw fouls and get those easy points.

Felício, Carter Jr, and even Satoransky are able to crash those offensive boards and get those second chances. LaVine and Satoransky can both facilitate the offense and get the others involved.

It does lack the defensive value which could be a problem over an extended period, it is still a potent offensive lineup that could kickstart a stuttering offense.

Ideally, you’d want the best defensive lineup and best offensive lineup to not lose as much on the opposite end. This is where squad building is so important, especially for teams which can’t recruit three or four all-star caliber players.

AREAS TO STRENGTHEN

Every position could do with strengthening but some more than others. Point guard and small forward are the standouts but power forward, or another high value big man are also important. Coby White just completes his rookie season so still has a lot of improvement to come so how he progresses at the point is crucial for the direction of the team.

Some areas can be solved by repositioning. For example, converting Carter Jr to power forward, or playing LaVine predominantly as a point guard. LaVine’s playmaking has improved as he’s gotten older and this could mean he’s ready to become the team’s “quarterback”. Of course, moving pieces around covers holes but it can open new ones. The reason for repositioning always depends on what is available.

Some areas can be improved by redistribution of minutes. Harrison could go from eleven minutes to between fifteen and twenty. When boosting a player’s minutes, an eye must be kept on the effect of the VPM. The previous season, Harrison averaged almost twenty minutes but his VPM was far below this past season (32.1, 57.7, 90). It’s possible now with more experience that he can better maintain a high level of play.

We can only measure what players have done in past situations so how they will react to new circumstances is always hard to predict. Changing position and minutes is an easy option but it comes with the risk of losing the value which inspired the change. This is why trades, drafts and free agent signings are so crucial.

RECRUITMENT

Free Agency

There are some interesting free agents out there. Some big names, some young prospects, and some solid veterans. Let’s take a look at just a few who could boost Chicago’s VPM.

Toronto Raptor’s Fred Vanvleet is the type of leader who can come in and immediately help this young squad. He’s from Illinois too which helps. He offers shooting, playmaking, protects possession well, can force turnovers, and has that championship experience. At this stage of his career, he’s probably looking for a big contract so some roster movement could be required. He averages almost thirty six minutes per game which could be brought back to the high twenties so White can still get valuable minutes while learning from Vanvleet. His VPM is 77.2 ATT, 38.5 DEF, and Overall 116.

Another Raptor, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, is a 6-6 small forward who can offer a strong fifteen to twenty minutes per game. He’s not an outside threat but around the basket to mid-range he’s a good finisher. A good choice as back up to Otto Porter. His VPM score is 75.2 ATT, 45.2 DEF and Overall 120.

Derrick Jones Jr of the Miami Heat, is a small forward who can give around twenty minutes of valuable minutes. He might not have a long range shot in his arsenal at this stage but he can finish closer to the basket at a good rate. He’s good on the boards, defensively solid and protects the ball. He and Porter would offer good depth at small forward with LaVine, Markkanen and Harrison able to fill in when needed. His VPM is 65.5 ATT, 48.5 DEF, and Overall 114.

Montrezl Harrell is an undersized power forward/center at just 6-7 but his game doesn’t show it. Giving his Clippers team around twenty eight valuable minutes. A good finisher around the basket and he dominates those boards, both offensive and defensive. He doesn’t have a long shot and his free throw shooting needs improving but his overall value is undeniable. His versatility would allow other movements in the squad. His VPM is 86.3 ATT, 59.2 DEF, and Overall 146.

Willy Hernangómez is a 26 year old Spanish center for the Charlotte Hornets. He offers a strong ten to fifteen minutes a game. A good finisher around the rim and good on the boards. His VPM is 70.8 ATT, 49.2 DEF, and Overall 120.

Ukrainian Center, Alex Len, was at Atlanta and Sacramento last season. He averaged around eighteen minutes per game. They were very valuable minutes too with good balance on both ends. He’s a good close-to-basket finisher but his outside shot still needs respecting. Strong in the boards and offers rim protection. He, Gafford and Carter Jr would offer very good depth at the Center spot. His VPM is 76.6 ATT, 65 DEF and Overall 142.

Kris Dunn, Denzel Valentine and Harrison are restricted free agents. None of them are on big contracts and might be worth retaining, if only to serve as pieces in a trade down the line. Harrison is one that does provide high value for his minutes on the court, is on the least money and is versatile on both ends of the court so his case for retention is the strongest.

Draft

Currently the Bulls have the 4th and 44th picks in the draft. There are some prospects in the draft which could be projects for the future and some players that could be ready to hit the ground running. The Bulls are young squad so could do with ready-to-go players. Drafting the best available player regardless of needs is not a bad option as trades can be made after.

Onyeka Okongwu is a player who jumps out. He can play the power forward or center position and is extremely valuable on both ends of the court with his rebounding and efficient scoring. He’s predicted to be a top 5 pick, so if he’s still on the board, Chicago should choose him. He’s both young but could make an instant impact. His VPM from his PAC-12 games was 91.2 ATT, 115.7 DEF and Overall 207.

Devin Vassell isn’t the highest profile guard on the board. He’s predicted to go around 10th. The 6-6 shooting guard is a real threat from distance, averaging over 41% from three both his college years. His rebounding and and defence are solid and he offers good ball protection. A combination of him LaVine and Harrison at SG would be strong and allow the others to fill in other positions when necessary. His VPM in ACC was 70.3 ATT, 66.1 DEF and Overall 136.

Daniel Oturu is a Big Ten center at Minnesota. He’s predicted to go mid-40s which would give Chicago a chance to take him at 44. A high-scoring and efficient offensive threat who is strong on the boards and offers rim protection. His offensive and defensive value is very well balanced. His Big Ten VPM 87.3 ATT, 93.9 DEF and Overall 181.

Trades

There wouldn’t be anyone on the Bulls roster deemed untouchable if the right opportunity presented itself. The draft and free agency period will tell us a lot.

If the Bulls can, they should try and trade up the draft. They have a young squad and not too many big contracts so there is an opportunity to shift some pieces.