In season 20/21, Glasgow Celtic finished second behind their biggest rival, Glasgow Rangers. However, more importantly they finished 22 points behind while scoring 14 less goals and conceding 16 more goals. They were also 3 points off and scored 11 goals less and conceded 10 goals more than last season. As for the VPM, Celtic’s ATT was slightly higher than Rangers but they had less goals to show for it which meant they had to work harder for their goals as we can see in the second graph.
With DEF Value and OVRL (which includes miscellaneous data points like cards and fouls), Rangers had the advantage.
ATT it seems clear that Celtic need to improve on efficiency and create more clear cut opportunities. Despite having more shots and more shots on target than Rangers, a large amount of those were from outside the penalty area. Rangers were more patient than Celtic in their shot creation.
The defense and forwards need reinforcements. Some additional centre backs, full backs, a striker or two and a goalkeeper are a good start.
Forwards
We can see the three Celtic strikers at the top of the graph and the three prospects at the bottom.
Odsonne Édouard performed the best out of strikers it just in generating value for his actions but also for his work rate (actions attempted per minute) and successful work rate.
Although his fellow Celtic strikers worked hard, they didn’t have the same success in generating value in general nor specifically as centre forwards.
Ajeti actually produced negative value overall for his team although if you just isolate his specific centre forward actions when attacking, his value is much higher than Leigh Griffiths.
Griffiths saw a lot of action as the forwards for Celtic will do as they generally dominate possession and chances compared to their Scottish rivals. He was unable to convert the action into value across the board. Still only 30 years old so might be able to be moved on as he would represent value to another team.
Lukáš Juliš will be familiar to Celtic fans because he scored 5 goals against them in their playoff tie in Europe for Sparta Praha. His CF VPM and OVRL VPM is much higher than Ajeti and Griffiths and this is even when playing in the Fortuna Liga which has a higher challenge intensity than the SPL.
Sydney van Hooijdonk represents an investment in the future as well as an investment in club tradition. He is the son of Celtic legend Pierre van Hooijdonk. At 188cm, he has his father’s size and eye for goal with a very good conversion rate on goal. Currently at NAC Breda, Celtic would be a step up but there’s a chance that he could make that step and at the very worst, would start as a development project. Possibly a loan to a rival club might be in order for him to acclimatise to the increase in intensity.
Finally, we have David Strelec, a 20 year old Slovak striker for Slovan Bratislava. The Slovakian league has a high challenge intensity and a good pace. His overall VPM is the highest among all the strikers and his specified CF VPM is only second to Édouard. Strelec represents the lowest risk, highest reward of the strikers given the economic disparity between Slovakian and Scottish football, especially Celtic. Worst case scenario is he becomes a project to develop for the future.
Defenders
Celtic had on-loan defenders and, in Ajer, a defender who is rumored to be sold this upcoming transfer window. Jonjoe Kenny, the right back, was loaned from Everton while Diego Laxalt, the left back, was on-loan from AC Milan. So a complete rebuild is in order at fullback and reinforcing at centre back.
Left Backs - Greg Taylor is a solid option at left back but Celtic do need more options there. Both Fabiano Parisi and Fredrik Bjørkan represent promising competition for that position. Bjørkan is arguably the better out and out full back. His passing is high level, and he’s comfortable with the ball at his feet taking opponents on. Not great in the air but on the deck he’s very capable.
Parisi represents the better overall value as his passing and defending is of a high standard. His crossing isn’t as good as Bjørkan but he does have a very good range of passing.
Right Backs - We can see from the above graph that Aslak Witry, the Norwegian right back playing for Djurgårdens IF in Sweden, leads the way in every category. It’s his passing and dribbling that complements his defensive work which gives him such high value.
Kristián Vallo, a 23yo Slovakian at Wisla Plock, would be a good understudy for Witry. His passing for a fullback is also good and his defensive work is solid. Having played in Poland and Slovakia, the pace of the game isn’t dissimilar to Scotland.
Center Backs - there are currently three centre backs left from the last campaign but Ajer is rumoured to be on his way to England this window. The remaining two CBs are good players, Jullien has a lot of experience and is very good defensively in the air or in the ground. Welsh is one for the future but has shown his distribution is quality and he can do the job defensively. The squad does need options though.
In Mats Knoester you have a young Dutch CB who came through the Feyenoord system, representing the Netherlands the whole way through and has senior experience in the Dutch top flight with Heracles. He’s good in the air, very good distribution with range.
Shinnosuke Hatanaka is a familiar name to the Boss and going by his numbers, he’s the most valuable player on the list. Of course his mental and physical aptitude to adapt to Scottish football will be the big question mark here. He’ll know the style being implemented but how will he do against a very different opposition than he is used to? There will be games that can be used to wean him on to the new environment or even a short term loan deal to a rival club or in a similar paced league might do the trick. Technically very, very good.
Jorge Cuenca, is another young player who has spent time at Almeria in the Spanish second division. Technically very good with a balanced contribution offensively and defensively. Currently a Villarreal player, so a loan move might be possible if not an outright sale. He has a 92% passing accuracy and 83% into the final third while winning more than 60% of all his defensive duels.
Jirí Piroch is a Czech defender who is dominant in the air but also has good distribution. At 25, he’s a good age coming into his prime and could represent very good value for money. The Czech league has an even higher challenge intensity than Scotland so his time of adjustment might not be as long as some of the other options.
Finally, we have the Georgian giant, Nika Sandokhadze. Has spent most of his career in Georgia but does have experience in the Ukraine and Latvia also. Wins over 84% of his aerial duels and has a 92% passing accuracy with 83.5% into the final third. His overall successful actions are also over 80%. At 27, he’s the oldest option but he also represents a potential bargain and therefore is low risk.
*All data sourced from Wyscout
** All player’s data weighted by the 2019/20 SPL season
*** Players were identified by setting filters related to their position. For example, aerial duels and forward passing. Age and market value were also taken into account.
